Vela Breakout
Research · idea

Uncertainty and selective prediction

Losing ground: 1.6% → 1.4% of AI papers.

Change in share
-0.2 pts
Share, last 3 months
1.4%
Papers, last 3 months
412
Ready for products
2.3 / 5
0.5%1.0%1.5%Oct 24May 25Jan 26Sep 26other ideasUncertainty andselective prediction1.4%
Measured, not estimated · snapshot 2026-10-02 · Growth is shown only where the starting size is big enough to mean something.